Recently, we have paststat.com pointing out “unusual $SPY up for 4 or more days in row ” http://paststat.com/blog/spy-up-for-4-or-more-days/

will lead to fairly substantial decline and sentiment trader pointing out similar situation:

sentiment

 

At the end of today, 2/13/2014, we are also entering a seasonally bearish holiday (Presidents day). If we short @ the close of 2/13/2014 (2 days before the holiday) and exit @ the 1st profitable open/close in the next 20 days, you see what happens below. Note that we are not using the 2.5% stop we usually use though. Note if today, 2/3/2014 is down more than 0.5%, you make even more money than average when short (1% +)

 

presidentsDaySummary

 

 

presidentsDayDetails

 

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