Recently, we have pointing out “unusual $SPY up for 4 or more days in row ”

will lead to fairly substantial decline and sentiment trader pointing out similar situation:



At the end of today, 2/13/2014, we are also entering a seasonally bearish holiday (Presidents day). If we short @ the close of 2/13/2014 (2 days before the holiday) and exit @ the 1st profitable open/close in the next 20 days, you see what happens below. Note that we are not using the 2.5% stop we usually use though. Note if today, 2/3/2014 is down more than 0.5%, you make even more money than average when short (1% +)