See Down Friday, Down Monday with bond yield up. A very high % of winning for a very short term trade. I know it is bad longer term
One of Larry Connor’s system triggered today: buy @ the close of today when there are 3 days of lower high and lower lows while close is still above 200 days simple mv and close is also lower than 5 day simple mv. 84% chance of winning and win/loss is 0.78. I think it was a little higher a few years back when he published the book. Forgot about the exit…. it is NOT the -2.5% or 1st profitable opening or close. It is when close is back above 5 day mv
On 9/18, Day before FOMC announcement 2 VIX up closes 96% win would exit @close with 1.16% profit.
On 9/16, pastStat.com’s idea: 3 up days today is Friday and Close is less than 50 days with an extra filter yields 100% winning trades would exit at a loss of 2.59% at the close. As I mentioned before, 50 days moving average is probably a key design factor in this test. If the price is too close to the 50 days or it goes above it, better exit.
There is nothing much to discuss this week. I have seen postings by
and it looks like quantitatively, some are bullish and some are bearish. I don’t know if anyone noticed this warning sign: Cumulative advanced decline line (3rd panel). Price is almost backup to the top but breadth is not quite there yet. Seasonally, it has entered a bearish week and there is one short term signal active. Trading day of the month 9 in Sept is bearish but NOT betting in either direction seems to be a better idea. “If you are already rich, you don’t need to take any risk” says a very wise friend of mine.
I saw this on twitter and figured that I want to test this out. I have very little experience with Jewish holiday type of seasonality. I got my dates from this website. http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/us/rosh-hashana. As you may know I based my testing on 1st profitable opening or close and 2.5% stop loss with long or short trades. Between Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur, I managed to get 77% chance of winning (Excluding the currently open trade) but with a negative expectation. Since 1995, there are only 4 times that market went up between Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur but those 4 times greatly exceeded my 2.5% stop.
However, there are quite a few negative signals triggered recently, this one just might add to the bearish case. I would not act on this signal alone though.
I saw @SusanCTShore’s post a few days ago. If we buy 3 days before employment report Friday usually TUES AND SPY has closed down for the past 2 days and close is greater than 200 days simple moving average. 100 percent chance of winning. See FAQ for exit.
Basically, 3 up days including today and today is Friday and Close is less than 50 days simple moving average. If I add a filter saying that today’s close is in the upper half of today’s range, (a little over bought), the winning percentage goes to 100 with 22 trades, 23rd trade is our open trade now triggered Friday 9/6/2013.